Reasoning About Risk
Improving the quality and clarity of reasoning in risk assessment
The Challenge
Reasoning - raising and evaluating arguments and evidence - is a critical component of any thorough risk assessment process. Reasoning helps us make judgements regarding the nature and severity of risks, and it plays a crucial role in communicating and justifying those judgements to others.
However the reasoning associated with risk assessment can be quite complex; stretching our cognitive capacities up to and beyond their natural limits. Also, though this is often not properly appreciated, rigorous general reasoning is a technical domain in its own right, in which most analysts and managers have had little formal training.
Consequently, reasoning for risk assessment can be afflicted by a range of problems:
However the reasoning associated with risk assessment can be quite complex; stretching our cognitive capacities up to and beyond their natural limits. Also, though this is often not properly appreciated, rigorous general reasoning is a technical domain in its own right, in which most analysts and managers have had little formal training.
Consequently, reasoning for risk assessment can be afflicted by a range of problems:
- Logical gaps and errors causing flawed judgements
- Varied reasoning styles resulting inconsistent judgements
- Obscure, bloated or disorganised expression leading to confusion and disputes
- Inefficient processes and poor productivity.
The Solution
Reasoning can be improved in quality, clarity, and efficiency through a process known as argument mapping. This involves:
- Using diagrams to help make complex reasoning more transparent; and
- Applying simple but powerful principles of logic
Workshop
van Gelder & Monk have joined forces with the University of Melbourne's Centre for Environmental and Economic Research (CEER) to provide one-day workshop in the use of argument mapping to support risk assessments.
The workshop is an intensive one-day exercise designed to equip participants with knowledge and skills for applying basic argument mapping to real risk assessment challenges in their organisation, both as individuals and as teams. Topics include:
The workshop may be able to make use of risk assessment challenges from your organisation as material for exercises.
The Reasoning about Risk workshop is designed to complement other risk-related workshops offered by CEER and van Gelder & Monk.
The workshop is lead by Dr. Tim van Gelder, a Principal in van Gelder & Monk and Principal Fellow at the University of Melbourne, who has pioneered the development of argument mapping methods and software tools. Specialist expertise in risk assessment is provided by van Gelder & Monk's Dr. Richard de Rozario and CEER staff.
The workshop is an intensive one-day exercise designed to equip participants with knowledge and skills for applying basic argument mapping to real risk assessment challenges in their organisation, both as individuals and as teams. Topics include:
- Introduction to reasoning challenges in risk and assessment, and to argument mapping
- Mapping simple arguments with the CASE schema
- Using abstraction to bring good hierarchical structure to complex argumentation
- Principles for strengthening arguments, including identifying hidden assumptions
- Using argument mapping to develop clear and compelling written arguments.
The workshop may be able to make use of risk assessment challenges from your organisation as material for exercises.
The Reasoning about Risk workshop is designed to complement other risk-related workshops offered by CEER and van Gelder & Monk.
The workshop is lead by Dr. Tim van Gelder, a Principal in van Gelder & Monk and Principal Fellow at the University of Melbourne, who has pioneered the development of argument mapping methods and software tools. Specialist expertise in risk assessment is provided by van Gelder & Monk's Dr. Richard de Rozario and CEER staff.
Workshop Enrolments
Our workshops are usually run by arrangement with particular organisations. Please contact us if you would like to discuss the possibility of a workshop for your organisation.
Open-Enrolment Workshop
We plan to offer at least one open-enrolment workshop in 2016, with date still to be confirmed. The fee will be $990 plus GST per participant, with discounts for groups. Please contact us if you would like to be notified of this workshop.
Open-Enrolment Workshop
We plan to offer at least one open-enrolment workshop in 2016, with date still to be confirmed. The fee will be $990 plus GST per participant, with discounts for groups. Please contact us if you would like to be notified of this workshop.
